Race Plan and Finish Time Predictions

Yes I’m still here.  Been training like mad since Boston.  So much so that I really have not had the time or energy do any blog updates till now.   Over the past 12 weeks my training weeks have consumed anywhere from 10 hours per week to as much as 20 during the LP training camp in June.  For the past several weeks I have been teetering on the edge of fatigue and overtraining.  Fortunately I suffered no injuries and my fatigue level has subsided considerably.  By race day I should be fully rested and at 100%.

The big day is fast approaching and one of the last things I needed to do as part of my race prep was develop a race plan.  That is what this post is about.   My first version was very conservative and overestimated split times.  That was the one I posted to the team last week.  Well since then I reconsidered my plan and decided I should revise it to accurately reflect my true expectations.  Yes they are still reasonable and based on actually training times that I know I can reproduce.  Whether I can reproduce them all in 1 day, the day that matters, is yet to be seen.  The point is, I am confident that the plan below is possible; I just need to be smart about pacing and overall execution.  If I get the execution right, I should be very close to my predictions.  Do the stupid things anywhere and everything after that will suffer – especially me!

So, here it is.  My race plan for Ironman Lake Placid 2011

Objectives:  

(1) Finish first IM in daylight

(2) Run the full marathon.

(3) Finish sub 13 hours

Stats:  

Age: 53; height: 5’ 10”; race weight: 153.   

Swim pace (pool) 1:42, long OWS pace 2:12. 

FTP = 220 @ 3.1w/Kg.

vDot = 46; T pace 7:20

Pre-Race: 

Saturday afternoon meal: broiled tuna with stir-fry and pasta.  Bedtime @ 9 PM. 

Morning meal:  PB&J and Infinite Run mix @ 4 AM.  Follow with 16 – 24 oz coffee. 

Drink 20 oz Infinite Run mix en route to swim start.

T0:      EN tri kit, Garmin 310, HRM, Orca Equip wetsuit, AquaSphere Kayenne goggles, ear plugs, cap

Swim: Anticipate 1:25 @ 2:00; (1:30 @ 2:12)

            Stand near the shore in front of the shore crowd and start just before the cannon.

Get into a soft spot behind the blender and deal with it.

T1:      Shimano T31 shoes, no socks; helmet; Tifosi Vogel glasses; bib #; 20 oz Infinite Run mix.

Bike:  Goal is 70% of 220w; Anticipate 6:40 @ 16.8 mph; (7:00 @ 16.0 mph). 

Ride first gear @ 146w thru Keene and half way to Jay. 

Ride second gear @ 154w after that except for long climbs @ 162w. 

Avoid time above 170w.

Nutrition is Infinite in Speedfill on the down tube, refill at BSN. 

Bike mix is 300 cal with 380 mg NA per serving; 3.5 hours per fill. 

Hydration will be in the seat tube cage and replaced at aid stations.

Nutrition: Take 5 sips every 15 minutes (70 cal)

Hydration: 48 oz on the first lap then 64 oz second lap. If temp > 80, more water both laps.

Recently added a Salt Stick as a tool of last resort if things go terribly wrong

T2: Asics 2140, socks, Solar Comfort sunglasses, 6 Gu in bag, 20 oz Infinite Run mix, hat?

Run:   Anticipate 4:00 @ 9:10; (4:30 @ 10:20)

            Target 9:30 to 9:40 for the first 6 miles (EP + 30). 

From mile 6 to 18 plan to hold EP –acceptable range will be 8:50 to 9:10. 

Walk 30 steps at each aid station, take water, supplement with Perform and Coke. 

Gu on 40 minute interval (~4.5 miles)

Predictions:  

           

	Rock Star	Goal
Swim	1:25	1:30
T1	0:08	0:08
Bike	6:40	6:50
T2	0:03	0:03
Run	4:00	4:15
Total	12:16	12:46

            Rock Star finish is a ‘Best Possible’ finish and is very much a long shot

            Goal finish is where I believe I can at the end of the day